IPCC scenario databases are dominated by a handful of models. A new weighting framework corrects the bias — and shifts net-zero timelines by a decade.

A 2026 study maps tipping thresholds for all 18 Antarctic drainage basins, finding West Antarctic collapse may be triggered at 1–2°C and East Antarctic basins at risk from 2–5°C.

A 2026 Earth Commission commentary outlines a science-based framework integrating planetary boundaries with justice to guide systemic transformation toward a safe and just future.

A 2026 commentary by Hansen et al. argues accelerating ocean warming, not El Niño strength, is the key story — driven by high climate sensitivity of 4–5°C and declining aerosol cooling.

A 2026 multimodel study finds 1.5°C-consistent climate pathways allocate up to 13% of global biodiversity refugia to land-intensive carbon removal, with disproportionate impacts on low-income countries.

A 2026 study finds coastal flooding already costs Europe €519M/year in transport damage, rising to €1.09B at 4°C, with roads most exposed and rail most expensive to repair.

A 2026 study confirms the Atlantic "cold blob" is caused by weakening ocean heat transport, not surface heat loss — a clear AMOC slowdown signal.

El Niño doesn't just spike mortality — it slows health progress for over a decade. New research puts the future cost at US$35 trillion by 2100.

New research across 130 countries finds each degree of warming could push nearly 100 million more people into poverty — and national data barely captures it.

New research tracks not how much glacier ice we lose, but how many individual glaciers will vanish — and the peak is coming by mid-century.

A 2025 study proposes using temporary 30-year CO₂ removals to offset methane emissions.

A 2025 study finds that tropical forest microclimates halve effective climate velocities for ground-dwelling species and reduce them to near-zero within the canopy.

A 2025 study finds that multiple ocean stressors — warming, deoxygenation, salinity shifts, and acidification — are emerging across up to 32% of the global subsurface ocean, creating compound climate hotspots with growing risks for ecosystems and fisheries.

A 2026 study finds that AMOC collapse would trigger deep Southern Ocean convection, releasing 47–83 ppm of CO₂ and adding ~0.2°C of global warming.

A 2025 study finds that extreme day-to-day temperature swings have intensified since the 1960s across low and mid-latitudes.

A 2025 study projects that historical European heat waves recurring under 3–4°C warming could kill tens of thousands in a single week.

A 2025 study reveals that North Pacific pan-basin warming now overshadows the robust PDO, disrupting historical ecosystem correlations and demanding updated fisheries management approaches.

Post-growth scenarios synthesize 5 principles—well-being, sufficiency, equity, realigned economy, north-south convergence—challenging growth-oriented mitigation pathways.

IPCC's "unlikely" terminology undermines consensus perception vs. "small probability" across 8 experiments (N=4,150), weakening when projections exceed expectations.

Conservation Agriculture on 200M ha sequesters 0.5-0.9 t C/ha/yr, cuts inputs 50-70%, and offers universal scalability to reverse boundary transgressions.