Promising Climate Progress from Net-Zero Ambitions to the Paris Agreement Goal
New multi-model analysis shows net-zero pledges narrow warming to 1.8–2.1°C — but only full global coverage and faster action closes the Paris gap.
For over a decade, assessments of the global emissions gap have told broadly the same story: current policies and pledges fall short of the Paris Agreement. What has been missing is a robust, multi-model evaluation of the net-zero commitments that countries began announcing after Glasgow — targets now covering major emitters including China, India, Brazil, and the EU.
Tagomori et al. (2026) provide exactly that, running five policy scenarios through eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models to map how current pledges compare to Paris pathways, and what closing the remaining gap would actually require.
Key Findings
Current policies still put the world on a 2.6–3.4°C path — but net-zero pledges mark real progress
Without the net-zero ambitions announced since Glasgow, current implemented policies are projected to more or less stabilize global GHG emissions at today's levels, leading to a warming range of 2.6–3.4°C by 2100. Implementing existing net-zero pledges (the LTS scenario) brings that down to 1.8–2.1°C — a substantial improvement, but still outside both the 1.5°C and well-below-2°C targets. The gap between pledges and implementation is the central problem: if more ambitious policies are not enacted after 2030, emissions at the global scale would stabilize rather than decline, and warming would remain well above the Paris goal regardless of what countries have officially announced.
Expanding net-zero coverage to all countries brings the well-below-2°C target within reach
When the models expand net-zero commitments to all countries that currently lack them — assigning target years based on income-level comparisons — the projected warming range narrows to 1.4–1.8°C by 2100, placing the world inside the well-below-2°C corridor. Accelerating those timelines by 5–10 years further tightens the range to 1.4–1.7°C. The critical finding across all these scenarios is that 1.5°C without overshoot is very unlikely under any of them — that door appears effectively closed under current and plausible future ambition levels.
Coal phase-down and electrification drive most near-term emission reductions
Across all models, the primary drivers of emissions cuts in the 2030–2050 window are energy efficiency gains, a strong phase-down of coal use, and expanding electrification — particularly in transport and heavy industry (iron and steel). Under ambitious scenarios, electricity rises to more than 50% of final energy use by 2050, driven mainly by the transport and building sectors switching away from combustion fuels. Unabated coal is phased out by nearly all models before 2100, with oil and gas largely redirected toward hard-to-abate sectors. Despite fast renewable growth across all scenarios, most models do not reach the COP28-endorsed target of tripling global renewable capacity by 2030, largely because stranded assets, grid constraints, and technology ramp-up timelines limit the pace — underscoring the need for dedicated early interventions rather than relying on pledges to self-execute.
Regional trajectories diverge sharply, and low-income regions depend on international support
High-income regions need to reach net-zero by mid-century, while low- and middle-income regions show more varied trajectories. South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East continue increasing emissions under current policies and rely heavily on international financial and technological support to follow steeper reduction paths. East Asia — primarily China — is projected to peak emissions by 2030 under all scenarios and already shows substantial reductions in the more ambitious cases, with most coming from phasing down coal in power generation and electrifying heavy industry. Latin America and Indonesia show particular potential in land-use-related emissions, potentially contributing around a 45% reduction through strong deforestation commitments.
The Gap Is Real But Not Insurmountable
The paper's headline message is cautiously constructive: net-zero pledges represent a genuine and substantial step beyond NDCs alone, with a potential for 25–40 GtCO₂e of additional emission reductions in 2050 relative to current levels. But pledges are not policies — and the scenarios make clear that without concrete domestic implementation through energy efficiency mandates, fossil fuel phase-out timelines, and renewable deployment support, the announced ambitions will not translate into the trajectories the models project.
In a geopolitical context where international cooperation is under pressure and fossil fuel interests remain strong in many holding countries, the distance between what pledges imply and what policies currently deliver is the defining challenge for whether the Paris Agreement stays within reach.
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