The public’s views on climate policies in seven large global south countries
- Hakan Sener
- Sep 17
- 4 min read
Updated: Oct 1
Scientists emerge as most trusted climate information source across Global South, but climate action drops in priority when policy trade-offs are introduced.
A new study led by Richard Carson (UC San Diego) surveyed 8,400 internet-enabled respondents across Chile, Colombia, India, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Vietnam to understand climate knowledge, information trust, and policy preferences in major Global South nations.
The research reveals that while respondents express strong abstract support for climate action (averaging 4.6/5 on importance), climate policies drop significantly in priority when forced to compete with other pressing social needs like healthcare, employment, and poverty reduction.
Key Findings: Trust in Science vs. Policy Priorities
Scientists dominate as trusted climate information source
Scientists ranked as the most trusted climate information source in all countries except Vietnam, where they placed third. This trust correlates strongly with increased climate knowledge—roughly twice the effect of having a college degree.
National governments also ranked highly for trustworthiness, while social media and religious leaders consistently ranked lowest despite social media receiving substantial attention as an information source.
Climate knowledge similar across countries, lower than Global North
Respondents answered about 20% fewer climate questions correctly compared to previous Global North surveys, with gaps concentrated in physical science and long-term consequences rather than human causes of climate change.
Interestingly, 85% of Global South respondents correctly identified climate change as human-caused, compared to only 75% in the Global North, suggesting stronger consensus on anthropogenic causation despite lower technical knowledge.
Priority paradox: high abstract support, lower practical ranking
When asked directly, respondents rated climate change importance at 4.6/5 across all countries. However, when forced to rank 13 competing policy areas, only Vietnam placed climate in the top three priorities.
Healthcare dominated rankings across all countries, while climate ranked in the bottom half in four of seven countries and bottom third in Nigeria and South Africa. This highlights the risk of relying on simple survey questions to assess actual policy support.
Drivers Under the Hood: Health Co-benefits and Revenue Preferences
Respiratory diseases top health priority universally
Across all countries, respiratory diseases (linked to air pollution and smoking) ranked as the top health priority among seven major health problems, surpassing HIV, malaria, tuberculosis, and waterborne diseases.
This finding suggests significant potential for climate policies that emphasize local air quality co-benefits, which often exceed direct climate benefits when any appreciable discount rate is applied.
Strong consensus on carbon tax revenue use
The top three preferred uses for carbon tax revenue showed remarkable consistency: health and education programs (ranked first in all countries except Kenya), solar panel subsidies, and clean energy R&D investments.
Direct rebates to citizens and deficit reduction—favored by many economists—ranked lowest across all countries, suggesting public preference for visible, targeted investments over abstract economic benefits.
Policy Trade-offs Reveal Complex Priorities
COVID-19 comparison shows nuanced climate views
Large majorities across all countries viewed climate as the more important long-term problem compared to COVID-19, with 85-95% supporting COVID recovery efforts that also address climate change.
However, when asked about accepting environmental harm for faster economic recovery, five of seven countries favored economic priorities, revealing tension between long-term climate concerns and immediate economic pressures.
Regional variations in policy statement agreement
While all countries strongly agreed that "climate change is the most important long-term problem globally," regional differences emerged in views about international responsibility and domestic action effectiveness.
Statements suggesting inaction received very little support universally, but views on whether domestic emissions reductions are "pointless" varied considerably, particularly in smaller economies.
How They Did It
The team used YouGov's online panels to collect responses from internet-enabled populations in each country, employing best-worst scaling methodology to rank preferences rather than traditional Likert scales, reducing cultural response bias.
The survey included 12 climate knowledge questions spanning physical science, human causes, and consequences, plus ranking exercises for information sources, policy priorities, health problems, climate policy statements, and carbon tax revenue uses. Advanced rank-ordered logistic regression models analyzed the resulting preference data.
Why It Matters for Climate Policy
Trust infrastructure already exists: High trust in scientists across Global South countries suggests effective channels for climate communication already exist, but scientific voices may need amplification relative to less reliable sources that receive more attention.
Co-benefits messaging critical: Universal prioritization of respiratory health problems suggests climate policies should emphasize local air quality benefits rather than abstract global warming impacts to build broader support.
Revenue design shapes acceptance: Strong preferences for targeted spending over rebates indicates carbon pricing policies should emphasize visible investments in health, education, and clean energy rather than generic tax relief.
Context-dependent priorities: The dramatic difference between abstract climate importance (4.6/5) and practical ranking (often bottom half) demonstrates that effective climate policy must address competing social priorities rather than assuming climate concern translates to political support.
Bridging the Implementation Gap
This study provides the most comprehensive cross-country analysis of Global South climate policy preferences to date, revealing both encouraging foundations (scientific trust, health co-benefit awareness) and significant challenges (competing priorities, preference for targeted over systemic approaches).
The researchers' innovative best-worst methodology offers more culturally robust preference measurement than traditional surveys, while the focus on policy trade-offs provides realistic assessments of political feasibility rather than hypothetical support levels.
As Global South countries become increasingly central to global climate action, understanding these nuanced public preferences becomes crucial for designing policies that can survive political implementation rather than remaining abstract commitments.
The gap between climate concern and climate prioritization represents perhaps the most important challenge for translating public awareness into effective policy action.
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