State of the Climate Update for COP30
- Hakan Sener
- Nov 26, 2025
- 7 min read
A 2025 WMO climate update confirms 2025 is on track to be the second or third warmest year on record, with the past 11 years being the 11 warmest ever recorded—yet greenhouse gas concentrations continue rising, glaciers lost a record 1.3 meters of ice, and only 60% of countries have early warning systems despite climate extremes devastating communities worldwide.
A report published by the World Meteorological Organization (2025) provides authoritative climate data to inform COP30 negotiations, combining consolidated 2024 data with preliminary 2025 figures. The update reveals that while some progress is being made in renewable energy expansion and early warning system deployment, fundamental climate indicators continue deteriorating at alarming rates. Global temperatures remain perilously close to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold, natural systems show accelerating destabilization, and extreme weather events are causing cascading humanitarian and economic crises across every continent.
The report documents that atmospheric CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide all reached record levels in 2024 and continue rising in 2025, while ocean heat content, sea-level rise, and glacier melt set new records—demonstrating that current mitigation efforts remain drastically insufficient.
Key Findings: Record-Breaking Climate Indicators Across All Systems
Temperature Nearing Paris Agreement Threshold
January-August 2025 global mean temperature was 1.42°C ± 0.12°C above pre-industrial levels. While 2025 will likely be the second or third warmest year on record (cooler than 2024), the past 11 years (2015-2025) will individually be the 11 warmest years in the 176-year observational record, with the past three years being the three warmest ever recorded.
The 26-month period from June 2023 to August 2025 saw only one month (February 2025) with global mean temperature distinguishably cooler than the same month from 2022 or before. The transition from El Niño to neutral conditions caused the slight temperature drop from 2024's record high.
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Hit All-Time Highs
Atmospheric CO₂ reached 423.9 ppm in 2024, a 53% increase from the 1750 pre-industrial level of 278 ppm. The increase from 2023 to 2024 was 3.5 ppm—a record jump in recent observational history. The average CO₂ growth rate over the past decade was 2.57 ppm per year.
Methane concentrations increased 166% from 729 ppb in 1750 to 1,942 ppb in 2024, while nitrous oxide rose 25% from 270 ppb to 338.0 ppb. Real-time data from monitoring stations like Mauna Loa and Kennaook/Cape Grim suggest concentrations of all three gases will be higher again in 2025.
Ocean Heat Content Reaches Record Levels
Ocean heat content in 2024 was the highest on record, exceeding 2023 by 16 ± 8 zettajoules. Preliminary 2025 data indicate ocean heat content has continued rising. The average warming rate doubled from 0.6 ± 0.1 W/m² during 1971-2024 to 1.0 ± 0.1 W/m² during 2005-2024.
Over 90% of Earth's surplus trapped energy goes into warming the ocean, indicating the planet is currently out of energy balance. This warming degrades marine ecosystems, accelerates biodiversity loss, weakens the ocean's carbon sink role, intensifies tropical storms, and drives sea-level rise—changes irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales.
Sea-Level Rise Rate Nearly Doubles
The long-term rate of sea-level rise increased from 2.1 mm/yr between 1993-2002 to 4.1 mm/yr between 2016-2025—nearly doubling over two decades. The year 2024 set a new record for annual global mean sea level.
Since 2016, observed sea-level rise has outpaced the sum of known contributions (ocean warming, thermal expansion, glacier and ice sheet melting), though recent studies including deep ocean warming largely explain this gap. Nearly 11% of the global population—around 900 million people—live on low-lying coasts directly exposed to coastal hazards.
Glaciers Lost Record 1.3 Meters Water Equivalent
For hydrological year 2023/2024, glaciers lost a record 1.3 meters of water equivalent (450 gigatonnes)—equivalent to 1.2 mm of global mean sea-level rise and more than double the average annual loss rates of the late twentieth century. The 2024 loss was driven by extremely negative balances in Central Europe and the Southern Andes.
This marked the third consecutive year that all 19 monitored glaciated regions worldwide recorded net mass loss. Venezuela lost its final glacier (Humboldt), joining Slovenia as the first two countries to lose all glaciers in modern times. Africa's last remaining glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro are on the verge of disappearing, while Indonesia's Puncak Jaya glaciers are almost completely lost.
Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low Maximum
Arctic sea-ice extent reached its annual maximum of 13.8 million km² on March 19, 2025—the lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The annual minimum of 4.6 million km² occurred around September 6, 2025.
Antarctic sea-ice extent reached its annual minimum of 2.1 million km² around February 24, 2025—the third lowest in the satellite record (1978-2025). The annual maximum of 17.9 million km² around September 16, 2025 was also the third lowest on record, with both 2023 records being lower.
Global Water Cycle Disruption Continues Sixth Year
Only about one-third of global catchment area showed normal river discharge in 2024 compared to the 1991-2020 baseline. About 60% of catchments recorded above- or below-normal flows, marking the sixth consecutive year of widespread disruption in the global water cycle.
Much-below-normal discharge persisted across South America (affecting Amazon, São Francisco, La Plata, and Orinoco basins), North Africa, and northern North American basins. Reservoir inflows, soil moisture, and groundwater reflected these anomalies, with deficits across South America and Southern Africa, and surpluses in Europe, Asia, and the Greater Horn of Africa.
Climate Extremes Devastate Communities Worldwide
Extreme weather through August 2025 caused cascading impacts across lives, livelihoods, and food systems. Major events included California wildfires causing 30 deaths and $40 billion in losses; Texas floods killing 135 people—the most significant inland flood disaster in the U.S. in nearly 50 years; and monsoon flooding affecting 1.57 million people with 881 deaths.
Mozambique was hit by tropical cyclones Dikeledi and Jude, affecting 3.6 million hectares of cropland and causing 492,000 displacements. European and eastern Mediterranean heatwaves burned 400,000 hectares, with Portugal (46.6°C) and Spain (46.0°C) setting June national records, and Turkey recording 50.5°C in July.
Renewable Energy Impacted by Climate Variability
Climate variability significantly affected renewable energy in 2024. Ongoing dry conditions across South America suppressed hydropower output while high temperatures elevated cooling demand. In South Asia, below-normal wind and solar photovoltaic production coincided with higher-than-average energy demand.
Record heat in 2024 drove global energy demand to 4% above the 1991-2020 baseline—far exceeding previous years, with demand in Central and Southern Africa nearly 30% above average. Over three billion people depend on marine and coastal resources for their livelihoods, now threatened by ocean warming.
Early Warning Systems Expanding But Gaps Remain
The number of countries reporting multi-hazard early warning systems more than doubled from 56 in 2015 to 119 in 2024—yet 40% of countries still lack these systems. Progress is notable among least developed countries and small island developing states, where coverage increased about 5% in the past year alone.
Surface weather stations sharing observation data grew 20% since 2019, while daily observations per station increased 60%. Least developed countries tripled compliant stations in two years, though no country has yet achieved full compliance with WMO network standards.
Climate Services Integration Advancing
Among the 36 NDC 3.0 submissions received by late 2025, 26 explicitly reference climate services and 25 reference early warning systems. According to UNFCCC's 2024 NDC Synthesis Report, 92% of Parties with adaptation components emphasized the need for enhanced climate data, observation systems, and climate research.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services capacity is expanding, with approximately 65% now operating at essential to advanced levels—up from approximately 35% five years ago. This is expected to exceed 90% by 2027.
Why This Matters: The Paris Agreement Goals Remain Out of Reach
The WMO's authoritative compilation demonstrates that despite growing awareness and incremental progress in renewable energy and early warning systems, the fundamental trajectory of climate change shows no signs of slowing. The finding that all 11 of the warmest years on record have occurred consecutively since 2015, combined with accelerating rates of ocean warming, sea-level rise, and glacier loss, reveals a climate system in rapid transition.
The doubling of sea-level rise rates within just two decades, the record-breaking single-year glacier loss exceeding twice the late twentieth-century average, and the sixth consecutive year of global water cycle disruption indicate that impacts are intensifying faster than adaptation measures can be deployed. With nearly 900 million people living on vulnerable coasts, record ocean heat driving irreversible ecosystem changes, and extreme weather causing tens of billions in economic losses from individual events, the costs of inadequate mitigation are already staggering.
The expansion of early warning systems—while saving lives—cannot substitute for emissions reductions. That greenhouse gas concentrations continue setting records annually, with 2024's CO₂ increase being the largest in recent history, proves that current policies are failing to bend the emissions curve downward at anything approaching the necessary pace.
COP30 Faces Stark Evidence of Implementation Failure
The WMO report delivers an unambiguous message to negotiators at COP30: the world is not on track to meet Paris Agreement goals. With only 62 countries covering 31% of global emissions having submitted updated climate pledges by October 2025—and major emitters including China, India, and the European Union yet to submit—the gap between scientific reality and policy ambition has become a chasm.
The data show a planet experiencing simultaneous destabilization across atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and hydrological systems, while human systems struggle to adapt to impacts already locked in. The positive developments in renewable energy capacity (up 15% in 2024) and early warning coverage offer proof that rapid transformation is possible when prioritized—making the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions all the more inexcusable.
As WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo notes, while there is good news in climate services and early warnings, the fundamental challenge remains: transforming scientific evidence into the ambitious, immediate action required to prevent catastrophic warming.
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