Health Losses Attributed to Anthropogenic Climate Change
- Hakan Sener
- 1 day ago
- 4 min read
A 2025 study reveals climate change is now causing over 31,000 deaths annually based on rigorous attribution science, with economic losses exceeding $99 billion per year—yet research remains heavily biased toward wealthy nations.
A new study published by Colin J. Carlson, Dann Mitchell, and colleagues provides the first comprehensive review of health impact attribution studies—research that uses counterfactual climate modeling to isolate deaths and illnesses directly caused by human-induced climate change. By analyzing 20 peer-reviewed studies and preprints from 2016 to 2024, the authors reveal that climate change is already imposing a substantial and growing health burden globally, particularly from heat exposure and extreme weather events.
The study demonstrates that attribution science—which compares actual health outcomes with what would have occurred without anthropogenic climate forcing—now provides the strongest quantitative evidence of climate change's current health impacts. However, this evidence base suffers from severe geographic and topical biases, with research concentrated overwhelmingly in high-income countries and focused primarily on heat-related mortality.
Key Findings: An Emerging Picture of Climate's Health Toll
Over 31,000 Annual Deaths Confirmed Through Attribution Studies
Five major attribution studies collectively estimate at least 31,119 deaths per year from climate change, including 9,702 heat-related deaths across 43 countries, 12,566 deaths from wildfire air pollution, 3,925 dengue fever deaths, 2,560 extreme weather deaths, and 2,366 malaria deaths.
These figures represent only what has been rigorously quantified—the true toll is likely far higher.
Economic Losses Exceed $99 Billion Annually
Using adjusted value of statistical life (VSL) calculations, the study estimates annual economic losses of $99.6 to $357.9 billion from confirmed attributable deaths.
Individual studies reveal staggering costs: temperature-related neonatal deaths in 29 low- and middle-income countries cost an estimated $29.5 billion annually, while heat-related deaths across 43 countries account for $31.0 billion in losses per year.
Research Heavily Biased Toward Wealthy Nations
Of studies examining subnational communities, 6 of 7 focused on high-income countries. Research effort has concentrated overwhelmingly on European populations (14 of 20 studies included European data), while Africa, home to populations most vulnerable to climate change, remains drastically understudied.
Almost all studies are led by institutions in the global north, even when examining health impacts in the global south—perpetuating colonial dynamics in climate research.
Temperature Dominates, Other Threats Understudied
17 of 20 attribution studies focused on temperature-related risks, with 11 examining mortality specifically. Only 6 studies addressed extreme weather events, and critical health threats remain completely unexamined despite observational evidence—including diarrheal diseases, malnutrition-related deaths, and mental health impacts.
Attribution Results Diverge Sharply from Earlier Projections
Compared to 2014 World Health Organization projections for 2030, actual attribution findings reveal dengue fever mortality an order of magnitude higher than expected, while malaria mortality appears an order of magnitude lower.
The last comprehensive global estimate of climate change mortality was published 20 years ago and estimated 166,000 deaths annually around the year 2000—attribution studies suggest current impacts may be approaching similar scales, but with dramatically different disease profiles.
75% of Global Population Lives in Countries Losing Freshwater
Between 2002 and 2023, 101 countries—home to three-quarters of the world's population—experienced net freshwater loss, compounding health vulnerabilities as climate change increasingly stresses water systems alongside direct health impacts.
Why This Matters: The Strongest Evidence Yet
Traditional climate health research has examined correlations between temperature trends and health outcomes, but attribution studies go further—using climate models to create counterfactual scenarios that isolate the specific contribution of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. This methodology provides the most rigorous evidence available that climate change is killing people now, not just in future projections.
The economic valuations also carry legal significance. One preprint estimated that specific fossil fuel companies can be linked to dozens of deaths in Switzerland, with Chevron attributable to 59 deaths ($188.8 million in losses), ExxonMobil to 54 deaths ($172.8 million), and Saudi Aramco to 53 deaths ($169.6 million). These "source attribution" studies may prove critical for climate litigation and loss-and-damage negotiations.
A Research Frontier That Must Expand—and Decolonize
The Carlson et al. study makes clear that while attribution science has established climate change as a present-day killer, the research community has barely scratched the surface. Dozens of climate-sensitive diseases remain unexamined through attribution methods, including most infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases like asthma and kidney disease, food insecurity-related malnutrition, and mental health impacts including suicide.
More critically, the field must address its colonial structure. Simply making more data from the global south available to northern researchers is insufficient—and risks deepening inequities. As the authors emphasize, "the best way to increase knowledge about the health impacts of climate change is to increase investment in research led by climate scientists and public health researchers living at the frontlines of climate injustice". The current death toll is already in the tens of thousands annually. Without urgent action on both emissions and research equity, this hidden engine of mortality will only accelerate.
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