Global Warming has Accelerated Significantly
- Hakan Sener
- Aug 13
- 3 min read
A 2025 study shows global warming doubled in pace since 2015, putting 1.5 °C within years—even after natural variability is removed.
A new study by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf reveals that, after adjusting for natural variability factors, global warming since 2015 has been rising at an unprecedented pace—twice as fast as the late 20th-century rate—bringing the world dangerously close to crossing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C limit within just a few years.
The study addresses a long-standing challenge in climate trend detection: short-term fluctuations from El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles can mask underlying acceleration. By statistically removing these influences from five major global temperature datasets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRU, Berkeley Earth, ERA5), the authors show a clear and statistically significant increase in warming speed that standard raw data analyses could not confirm.
Key Findings: Warming Is Now the Fastest in the Instrumental Record
Post-2015 Acceleration Is Statistically Significant
After adjustments, all datasets show a change point—mostly around 2015—marking a shift to the steepest warming trend since records began. The most recent decade’s warming rate is about 0.4 °C per decade, more than double the 1980–2000 average of 0.15–0.2 °C.
Record Heat in 2023 and 2024 Is Not a Fluke
Even when the exceptional El Niño of 2023–2024 is filtered out, the last decade’s rise remains abnormally high. The acceleration is visible in both LOWESS smooths (gradual trend) and piecewise linear fits (trend segments).
1.5 °C Threshold Could Be Crossed by Mid-to-Late 2020s
If the past decade’s rate continues, most datasets project the 1.5 °C limit will be breached around 2026, with ERA5 indicating the threshold may have been effectively reached in 2024.
Why Removing Natural Variability Matters
Natural events can temporarily skew global mean surface temperature (GMST):
El Niño warms the atmosphere for ~1 year after onset.
Volcanic eruptions inject cooling aerosols.
Solar cycles slightly modulate incoming energy.
By quantifying and subtracting these signals, the authors reduce “noise” and reveal the underlying human-driven warming trend with greater clarity.
Implications for Climate Action
The adjusted data leave “no doubt” about the recent acceleration, countering past claims of a warming “pause” and underscoring that the climate system can shift into faster warming phases.
While it’s uncertain if the current surge will persist, continuing at today’s pace would exceed Paris targets within just a few years—forcing either much deeper cuts in emissions or acceptance of greater climate impacts.
The World Is Not Only Warming—It’s Speeding Up
Foster and Rahmstorf’s 2025 analysis provides the clearest evidence yet that global warming has entered an accelerated phase, with rates unseen in the historical record—even after accounting for El Niño, volcanic cooling, and solar cycles.
Their findings confirm that the recent surge is not a statistical illusion but a real, human-driven shift, pushing the planet toward the 1.5 °C threshold far sooner than anticipated. The study serves as both a scientific milestone and a stark warning: without rapid and sustained emission cuts, this acceleration could set the stage for even more extreme and irreversible climate impacts.
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