Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023–2024: beyond the new normal
- Hakan Sener
- Apr 23
- 3 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
A 2025 study finds 2023–2024 climate extremes were fueled by Earth's energy imbalance, El Niño, and regional amplifiers beyond natural trends.
The years 2023 and early 2024 weren’t just warm—they were record-breakingly, systemically, and globally extreme. A 2025 study by Minobe et al., published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, investigates what made this period so exceptional and what it means for future climate extremes. The answer lies in a dangerous combination: a persistent rise in Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a rare transition from La Niña to El Niño, and a suite of regional amplifiers that turned already hot conditions into an exceptional global event.
Key Findings: Exceptional Warmth Rooted in Energy Accumulation
1. Earth's Energy Imbalance Has Been Building for Decades
From 2022 to 2023, the energy accumulated by the climate system was over 75% greater than during previous major El Niño events.
The top 100 meters of the ocean absorbed the bulk of this excess heat, raising both atmospheric and ocean temperatures to historic levels.
2. Marine and Atmospheric Extremes Were Widespread
Between April and December 2023, 30–40% of the global ocean was under marine heatwave conditions each month.
Global surface air and sea surface temperatures shattered records—not just slightly, but well beyond expected variability, even accounting for long-term warming trends.
3. Cloud Cover, Ocean Stratification, and Radiative Feedbacks Amplified Heat
The subtropical North Atlantic experienced record shortwave radiation due to a reduction in low cloud cover, intensifying surface heating.
A weaker Aleutian Low and shallow mixed layers in the North Pacific contributed to persistent warm anomalies.
In the Southern Ocean, an unusual “wave number 3” atmospheric pattern drove abnormal warming and sea ice loss.
The AB-Test: Quantifying the Exceptionality
To rigorously test whether 2023–2024’s climate extremes went beyond natural variability, the authors introduced the Abnormal record-Breaking (AB) test. This method factors in recent trends and variability to determine whether current conditions truly stand out.
The test confirmed that 2023’s warming—particularly in atmospheric energy, sea surface temperatures, and upper-ocean heat content—far exceeded what recent trends would predict.
Implications: The Climate System Is Becoming More Sensitive
The paper emphasizes that while long-term warming continues, natural variability is now amplifying its effects—not offsetting them.
ENSO cycles (La Niña to El Niño transitions) are now operating on a warmer global energy base, making their impact larger and more destructive than in previous decades.
The persistence of record-low planetary albedo, partly due to cloud loss, may continue to intensify Earth’s heating rate.
The potential for future feedback loops (e.g., between SSTs and clouds) remains poorly understood but increasingly concerning.
2023–2024 Was a Glimpse of Our Future Climate
This study makes clear that the climate extremes of 2023–2024 weren’t just anomalies—they were an escalation. As Earth absorbs more energy and natural oscillations like El Niño play out on a hotter stage, record-breaking events will become more frequent and more intense.
Minobe et al. argue that current climate models may still underestimate these extremes, in part due to underrepresenting Earth’s energy imbalance trends and cloud feedbacks. To prepare for the future, we must improve our understanding of both global energy flows and regional climate amplifiers.
The period of 2023–2024 may not be a one-off outlier—but rather a preview of the kind of extreme variability we can expect in a world shaped by accelerating climate change.
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