Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world
- Hakan Sener
- Aug 6
- 3 min read
Updated: Aug 20
A 2025 study finds climate policy support hinges on people linking extreme weather to climate change—exposure alone isn’t enough.
A global study published July 2025 has revealed that how people perceive climate change—not just how much they experience it—holds the key to stronger climate policy support.
Led by Viktoria Cologna and an international team of researchers from the TISP Consortium, the study analyzed data from over 71,000 people across 68 countries, integrating social science with physical climate models to understand how exposure to extreme weather and personal beliefs influence willingness to back climate action.
Key Findings: Attribution Matters More Than Exposure
Subjective Attribution Drives Support for Climate Policy
People who believe that climate change is making extreme weather worse are significantly more likely to support strong climate policies.
In fact, this belief—called subjective attribution—was a stronger predictor of policy support than actual exposure to droughts, floods, or storms.
Exposure Alone Isn’t Enough
Despite rising heatwaves, floods, and wildfires, exposure to five out of seven types of extreme events did not predict increased support for climate policies. Only wildfires had a consistent positive link, and even this was weak when controlling for belief in climate change.
This overturns a common assumption: just experiencing more disasters doesn’t guarantee more climate action—people need to connect the dots to climate change.
Climate Policy Support Is Widespread—but Varies
On average, global support for climate policies was high. For example:
82% of respondents strongly supported protecting forests and land.
75% supported more renewable energy infrastructure.
Only ~22% strongly supported higher taxes on meat and fossil fuels.
Support was highest in Latin America, Asia, and Africa, and lowest in parts of Europe. This variation reflects differing perceptions of climate urgency, government trust, and climate change awareness.
Attribution-Exposure Interaction Effects Are Complex
Interestingly, people who already strongly attribute extreme weather to climate change were less influenced by their country’s actual exposure—because their support for climate policy was already high.
However, in countries where belief in the link was weak, higher exposure sometimes did boost support—especially for heatwaves and tropical cyclones.
A Global Experiment in Climate Psychology
The researchers merged satellite-derived climate exposure data from the CLIMADA risk platform with large-scale surveys from the Trust in Science and Science-related Populism (TISP) study. Participants were asked both about:
Their experience with six types of extreme events, and
Whether they believed those events were worsened by climate change.
They were also asked about support for five policy options:
Carbon taxes on meat and dairy
Fossil fuel taxes
Investment in public transport
Expansion of wind and solar energy
Protection of forests and land
Support varied across demographics. People who were younger, more educated, urban, and politically left-leaning were generally more supportive. Women and religious individuals were also more likely to see a link between climate and extreme weather.
Communication Is the Missing Climate Lever
The authors suggest that policy support hinges not on disaster frequency, but on understanding.
Heavy rainfall, for example, was less likely to be linked to climate change—and those who didn’t make the connection were less supportive of climate action. This gap in public understanding highlights the need for targeted communication, especially in regions prone to misunderstood events like storms or floods.
Wildfires: A Teachable Moment
The only event type that consistently increased policy support was wildfires—possibly due to their visibility, media coverage, and direct health impacts. Still, the effect diminished when controlling for other factors.
Climate Attribution Is a Policy Catalyst
This expansive study makes a clear case: subjective attribution is a critical pathway to climate action. When people believe climate change is fueling the disasters they face, they’re more likely to support meaningful solutions—even costly ones.
Yet in many countries, especially those facing the harshest consequences, this link remains under-communicated.
The authors urge policymakers, communicators, and educators to:
Use clear, evidence-based messages about the climate-disaster connection.
Frame extreme weather as climate signals, not isolated events.
Tailor outreach to local contexts, focusing on overlooked events like rainfall and droughts.
Sign up for our newsletter or connect with us on social media to stay up-to-date with our latest posts and permaculture inspiration.
Explore our inspiring series and posts:
Love the post? Share it with your circle, inspire your people: